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Pictured: Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. Getty Images

Mariners vs. Yankees pick, odds, predictions for 5/20: Target the total in the Bronx

Originally posted on Action Network | By Kenny Ducey | Last updated 5/20/24

The New York Yankees began the season as the hottest team in the American League, and after a brief slump, their stellar play has resumed. The Yankees have taken seven straight games to fend off the Orioles for sole possession of first place in the AL East, and now they'll be looking to build that lead back up in a midweek series against the struggling Mariners.

Seattle's heavy fly-ball approach should work out quite well at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but can we say the same about Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert, who won't have the protection of his home park in this one?

Let's break down the best way to bet on Mariners vs. Yankees on Monday.

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds

Monday, May 20, 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Mariners Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+116	7.5 -122o/+100u	+1.5 -194

Yankees Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-136	7.5 -122o/+100	-1.5 +160

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been rather painful to follow over the years given their puzzling approach to hitting. They continue to be the most strikeout-prone team in the league, and while their power numbers have always been in or around the top 10 in baseball, producing so many fly balls puts them behind the proverbial eight-ball when they play at home, where fly balls go to die.

That's why the Mariners have hit .240 with a .385 slugging percentage on the road compared to .217 with a .363 SLG at home. It's also why they've really enjoyed facing opponents who pitch to contact, like Monday's starter for New York, Marcus Stroman. The Mariners are slashing a strong .254/.333/.423 this season against ground-ball pitchers, who allow them to deviate from their very poor offensive profile.

The pitching staff, meanwhile, has been built around the very same characteristics. The Mariners' arms have allowed fly balls at the third-highest rate in the league and rank third in Strikeout Rate, as Gilbert has been one of the biggest reasons why. He's struck out over 27% of the batters he's faced this year while staying firmly above the league norm in Fly-ball Rate, something that should get him into a bit of trouble in Yankee Stadium.

Gilbert's 7.97 ERA in four starts against the powerful Yankees prove that a matchup with a team that can convert fly balls to homers at an elite rate is his kryptonite, and it's also worth noting that the only time he pitched in Yankee Stadium, he surrendered six runs on seven hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings with three of those hits leaving the yard.

New York Yankees

Stroman was brought to New York specifically because he can combat the problem which pitchers typically run into at Yankee Stadium by rolling up a plethora of balls on the ground. His Ground-ball Rate is once again one of the better marks in baseball at 55.6%, and while his Expected ERA does stand over a full run higher than his actual ERA, his Expected Batting Average is actually down to .252 this season — his best mark in five years.

The issue for Stroman is that he's continued to struggle with walks, an area he never really had much trouble with until last season. Without the walks, that xERA would look much better — and he does run into a team ranked just 15th in Walk Rate this season, and 22nd over the last two weeks, on Monday.

The Yankees' offense, meanwhile, is humming. It makes perfect sense considering New York was one of the best in baseball at the plate for a month and a half despite the struggles of Aaron Judge. Now that the former MVP has picked up the pace, this team has a ridiculous .243 Isolated Power over the last two weeks and is hitting .284 over that span.

The walks have actually been down, but with these numbers — and a downright excellent 17.2% Strikeout Rate, it's hard to find any reasons to doubt the Yankees at the plate.

Mariners vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

The matchup here for Gilbert is hard to ignore. While he's been pretty dominant on the surface, he's running into a team which has struck out at an extremely low clip over the last 14 days and has made significant strides in that area over the course of the season. The Yankees' power numbers have been comical, and Gilbert has pitched to few ground balls, so with more balls coming back in play, this could be a quick outing for the righty.

New York is a deserving favorite in this one, and given that I'd make the Yankees moneyline closer to -150, there's certainly some value to be had here. With that said, I see significantly more value on the total with the way the Mariners have hit on the road. They love facing ground-ballers like Stroman, and their affinity for fly balls should be rewarded in such a hitter-friendly park.

I do think the Yankees will tee off on Gilbert and take this one, but Stroman should be in a decent amount of trouble in this matchup as well. I'm playing this over all the way up to 8.5 (-115).